We were in high spirits. The physicist laughed as he told his story. "Everybody had agreed on the proposed plan. The mayor had the support of both the citizens and the city council. Because the volume of traffic downtown and the resultant noise and air pollution had become intolerable, the speed limit was lowered to twenty miles per hour and concrete "speed bumps" were installed to prevent cars from exceeding it.
"But the results were hardly what the planners anticipated. The lower speeds forced cars to travel in second rather than third gear, so they were noisier and produced more exhaust. Shopping trips that used to take only twenty minutes now took thirty, so the number of cars in the downtown area at any given time increased markedly. A disaster? No--shopping downtown became so nerve-racking that fewer and fewer people went there. So the desired result was achieved after all? Not really, for even though the volume of traffic gradually went back to its original level, the noise and air pollution remained significant. To make matters worse, during the period of increased traffic, word had gotten around that once-a-week shopping expeditions to a nearby mall on the outskirts of a neighboring town were practical and saved time. More and more people started shopping that way. To the distress of the mayor, downtown businesses that had been flourishing now teetered on the verge of bankruptcy. Tax revenues sank drastically. The master plan turned out to be a major blunder, the consequences of which will burden this community for a long time to come."
The fate of this environment-conscious town demonstrates how human planning and decision-making processes can go awry if we do not pay enough attention to possible side effects and long-term repercussions, if we apply corrective measures too aggressively or too timidly, or if we ignore premises we should have considered.
The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations
by Dietrich Dorner
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For some odd reason I'm tickled by the idea that it is apparently not possible to sidestep the conundrum of unintended consequences by simply doing nothing, or by doing just a tiny bit of something.
Too much of nothing is just as bad as too much of something.
There's no sure thing.
image from reflective design
This post relates to:
ReplyDeletea) wildlife management
b) education reform
Just put it on my wish list.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I'll post Michael Crichton's summary of his argument. It's riveting.
ReplyDeleteI think the book it tracks with is Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment -- also fascinating.
What's interesting to me, as a late-life small-l libertarian, is Crichton's suggestion that nature (which I think would include markets) can't be let well enough alone.
Don't know what to make of that, but....I think it corresponds with my own experience of "managing" the complex system that is a family.