kitchen table math, the sequel: 2017

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

2017

Speaking of recessions and teachers, the Hamilton Jobs Gap calculator now projects a return to pre-recession job levels sometime between January and August 2017.

The recession began in December 2007 (the crash came nine months later, in September 2008).

So ten years.

The Hamilton projection surprises me because everyone else I read seems to think we'll never return to pre-recession job levels -- "never" meaning not in this generation, at least. A big chunk of workers has been sidelined, the thinking goes, and they're not coming back.

But Hamilton seems to be assuming we can get back to the employment-population ratios of 2007.

At least, that's what I think Hamilton assumes. I don't have the patience to work through their explanation tonight. Or maybe ever.

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Employment-population:

In January 2007, 80.3% of people age 25 to 54 were employed.

Today that figure is 77.2%, up from a low of 74.8% in November 2010.

Prime working age.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"... everyone else I read seems to think we'll never return to pre-recession job levels -- 'never' meaning not in this generation, at least. A big chunk of workers has been sidelined, the thinking goes, and they're not coming back."

I think some of the unhappiness about pre-recession job levels is because the "Labor Force Participation Rate" is at something like a 38 year low (http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-force-participation-rate-falls-to-38-year-low-2015-7 and http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/record-93626000-americans-not-labor-force-participation-rate-declines-626).

But Labor Force Participation Rate scores everyone 16 and older who has a job. As our population ages, the participation rate will drop because we'll have a larger percentage of the population in the retired age range.

We're probably *NOT* getting back to late-1990s labor force participation rates for a long time (maybe ever). We may well get back to the pre-recession rate for the 25 to 54 year old crowd.


NOTE: The Labor Force Participation Rate dropping is going to be a thing all by itself ... where do we get the resources for the retirees to consume? The only real answer is "from the working folks," so as the percentage of adults working drops (and the percentage of adults retired rises) there will be more strain on the system.

-Mark Roulo

Crimson Wife said...

I've definitely seen more SAHM's returning to paid employment since the labor market strengthened and fewer women quitting their paid jobs to become SAHM's. Even if someone is home raising kids by choice, that choice is a LOT easier to make when the labor market is weak.