If you're still thinking about this problem, you might find this page useful. It's not an explanation, per se, but there's lots of examples if you just follow the links, and it's intended for students who are almost certainly less mathematically sophisticated than you are.
This looks fantastic - thank you!
fyi: I mentioned Instapaper the other day. I've just stored the probability link in instapaper, where I'll be able to find it faster than I would find it here.
At least, I'll be able to find it faster at Instapaper until I max out Instapaper the same way I max out every other folder system I dream up.